Forecasting & Contingency Monitoring
Forecasting is used to assemble the “estimated cost at completion” and is updated as often as necessary to reflect projected final costs. Forecasts include actual costs; commitments or contracted costs; trends that are and deemed appropriate to forecast, contingencies, and other “soft” cost elements.
![](https://pmsvs.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Trends.jpg)
Forecasts are primarily derived from the Cost Trend Logs.
Forecast analyses may also provide evaluation of remaining costs; earned value; risk elements (including potential problems and opportunities that may occur and affect the costs of the project); cash flow projections, and burn rate estimates.
Any changes in cost or schedule forecast are documented via“Variances”.We provide deterministic forecasts of project costs based on on a baseline budget and an always up to date trend log. For “risk based forecasting” we utilize Monte Carlo methodology to determine a probabilistic forecast.
![](https://pmsvs.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Monte-Carlo-2-1.jpg)