Forecasting & Contingency Monitoring
Forecasting is used to assemble the “estimated cost at completion” and is updated as often as necessary to reflect projected final costs. Forecasts include actual costs; commitments or contracted costs; trends that are and deemed appropriate to forecast, contingencies, and other “soft” cost elements.
Forecasts are primarily derived from the Cost Trend Logs.
Forecast analyses may also provide evaluation of remaining costs; earned value; risk elements (including potential problems and opportunities that may occur and affect the costs of the project); cash flow projections, and burn rate estimates.
Any changes in cost or schedule forecast are documented via“Variances”.We provide deterministic forecasts of project costs based on on a baseline budget and an always up to date trend log. For “risk based forecasting” we utilize Monte Carlo methodology to determine a probabilistic forecast.